Bybit Report Captures Nuanced Sentiment Shifts: Positivity in Derivatives Market Despite Spot Price Decline in Sep
Dubai, United Arab Emirates, October 4th, 2024, Chainwire
Bybit, the world’s second-largest cryptocurrency exchange by trading volume, in collaboration with BlockScholes, released a comprehensive report deciphering movements in the derivatives market and painted a positive picture of underlying sentiment.
The latest data revealed that short-term options have only recently mirrored long-term volatility smiles which have consistently favored out-of-the-money (OTM) calls. Spirit remains high in the derivatives market. This is against the backdrop of the volatility premium created by the upcoming U.S. presidential election for options expiring after Nov.5, 2024, and the recent decline in spot prices in September.
Key Highlights:
- Futures: The surge in trading volume at month-end in Sep mainly concentrated in BTC contracts, and led to a notable decline in open interest as traders opted not to close their positions instead of rolling over. Data showed much lower future activity than that in perpetual swap markets.
- Perpetuals: The Sep. wave of contract expirations had less of an impact on perpetual swap contracts. Despite a decline in perpetual open interest at the end of the month, it does not translate to a significant decline, especially given the encouraging level of trading volumes recorded over the last two days of Sep.
- Options: The upcoming U.S. election continues to move markets, heavily influencing the BTC options. Longer-term and short-term options before the election displayed different volatility expectations, while actual volatility has reached new lows for the month since the Fed rate cut.
Tiding over to Oct, the first week of Q4 saw patterns reflecting the shifting sentiment. The nature of BTC spot prices however dictates sentiment is only one driver among many broader macroeconomic factors.
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For a comprehensive analysis and in-depth findings, download the full report here.
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