Bitget Examines Bitcoin Rally Above $87K and Identifies $142K Cycle Reference
Dubai, UAE, October 5th, 2026, Chainwire
Bitget, a global cryptocurrency exchange, has published a market analysis examining Bitcoin’s move above $87,000 and the factors that could shape the next phase of the current market cycle, highlighting approximately $142,260 as a longer-term reference point based on investor cost-basis data.
Bitcoin has climbed from approximately $63,000 in August to above $87,000, marking a significant move beyond its previous summer trading range. In its latest market view, Bitget examines the technical, on-chain, liquidity, and macroeconomic factors that could influence Bitcoin’s trajectory from current levels.
The analysis distinguishes between near-term technical levels and longer-term cycle indicators. While technical analysis identifies $97,000 and $107,500 as potential reference levels, a cost-basis framework places a historical profit-taking threshold at approximately $142,260.
Investor Cost Basis Points to a Higher Cycle Reference
One measure examined in the analysis is the True Market Mean Price (TMMP), a Bitcoin cost-basis metric associated with 10x Research that measures the average price paid for Bitcoin acquired on secondary markets, excluding coins obtained through mining.
The TMMP currently stands at approximately $76,897. Based on this measure, the average Bitcoin investor is holding a gain of roughly 12% at current prices.
According to the historical framework referenced in the analysis, Bitcoin has previously traded at least 85% above its True Market Mean Price before broader profit-taking occurred. Applying that relationship to the current cost basis produces a level of approximately $142,260.
Bitget emphasizes that this level should not be interpreted as a price forecast or a guaranteed target. Instead, it provides a longer-term reference for assessing Bitcoin’s position within the broader market cycle.
Technical Levels Remain Important
Before any longer-term cycle reference becomes relevant, Bitcoin must navigate several technical levels.
The current roadmap identified in the analysis is:
$82,000 → $84,000 → $97,000 → $107,500
Bitcoin has reclaimed its 50-week moving average, while its 50-day moving average has moved above the 200-day moving average, creating a Golden Cross. The 21-week moving average has also begun to turn higher.
These indicators do not guarantee that the current trend will continue, but they provide additional context alongside Bitcoin’s recent sequence of higher highs and higher lows.
The first technical question is whether the 82,000-84,000 area can develop into support. Approximately $84,000 has also been identified as a significant resistance area based on the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement of Bitcoin’s broader all-time-high-to-low move.
If that area holds, $97,000 and $107,500 become the next technical reference points.
This creates a distinction between the different levels discussed in Bitget’s analysis: $97,000 and $107,500 are technical reference points, while approximately $142,260 represents a longer-term cycle reference based on investor cost basis.
Spot Demand Remains a Key Factor
Bitget’s analysis also examines the source of Bitcoin’s recent momentum.
Renewed inflows into U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs have coincided with the latest rally, while short covering has contributed to the pace of the move. According to Jyotsna Hirdyani, South Asia Head at Bitget, the composition of market demand is an important consideration when evaluating the sustainability of a rally.
From Bitget’s perspective, the current move includes a meaningful component of ETF and spot demand, rather than being driven primarily by leveraged crypto trading.
Leverage and short covering can accelerate price movements, but continued spot buying can provide another source of demand as Bitcoin moves into higher price ranges.
The analysis therefore highlights the ability of spot demand to continue absorbing available supply as an important factor for the next phase of the market.
Liquidity and Macro Conditions Remain Relevant
Bitget also identifies global liquidity and macroeconomic developments as important variables for Bitcoin.
The market’s recovery from the August lows has occurred alongside a more supportive environment for risk assets. Changes in oil prices, geopolitical and trade developments, and broader expectations surrounding global liquidity can all affect investor risk appetite.
At the same time, the analysis highlights the Japanese yen as a variable to monitor. A significant strengthening of the yen could affect carry trades that use relatively inexpensive yen funding to invest in higher-yielding or riskier assets, potentially creating broader volatility across risk markets.
Bitcoin would not necessarily be insulated from such a shift.
For this reason, Bitget’s market view considers liquidity conditions and the ability of Bitcoin to absorb periodic macroeconomic shocks alongside its technical and on-chain indicators.
What to Watch Next
Bitget’s analysis identifies several areas for market participants to monitor as Bitcoin’s current move develops:
- 82,000-84,000: The near-term support area Bitcoin needs to establish and maintain.
- $97,000: A major technical reference point.
- $107,500: A subsequent technical reference point if the broader trend continues.
- Approximately $142,260: A longer-term cycle reference derived from the historical relationship between Bitcoin’s investor cost basis and broader profit-taking.
- Spot and ETF demand: An indicator of whether buying pressure continues to come from the spot market.
- Global liquidity: A key macroeconomic factor that could affect risk assets.
- Yen movements: A variable that could influence global carry-trade dynamics and market volatility.
None of these levels represents a guaranteed outcome. Instead, they provide different frameworks for assessing Bitcoin’s market structure at different time horizons.
Bitcoin’s Next Phase
Bitcoin’s move from approximately $63,000 to above $87,000 has shifted the market away from the consolidation seen during the summer. Bitget’s latest analysis suggests that the next phase will depend on whether Bitcoin can establish recent breakout levels as support while maintaining sufficient spot demand.
The technical picture points toward $97,000 and $107,500 as areas to monitor, while the investor cost-basis framework identifies approximately $142,260 as a longer-term cycle reference.
The distinction between these levels is important. Technical reference points describe potential stages in the price structure, while the cost-basis framework provides a broader view of where investor profitability could become significantly different from current conditions.
As Bitcoin’s market cycle develops, Bitget will continue monitoring the interaction between price structure, investor cost basis, spot demand, liquidity, and broader macroeconomic conditions.
About Bitget
Established in 2018, Bitget is a global cryptocurrency exchange and Universal Exchange (UEX) serving users with access to cryptocurrency and other market products. The platform is committed to helping users trade smarter through trading solutions and tools, including its pioneering copy trading offering. Bitget also provides access to a broad range of digital assets and market services.
For more information, visit Bitget’s official website.