Bybit and Block Scholes Report Finds Derivatives Markets Signaling Cautious Stability Despite Bitcoin at 15-Month Low
Dubai, UAE, February 6th, 2026, Chainwire
Bybit, the world’s second-largest cryptocurrency exchange by trading volume, has released the latest Bybit x Block Scholes Crypto Derivatives Analytics report, analyzing recent market turbulence that has pushed Bitcoin to a 15-month low while derivatives markets show limited signs of a prolonged crypto winter.
Key findings:
- Nearly $500 billion has been wiped from total crypto market capitalization since late January.
- Bitcoin has fallen about 40 percent from its $126,000 peak, triggering the largest crypto liquidations since Oct. 10, 2025.
- Open interest in Bitcoin perpetual futures has declined from roughly $5 billion to $3.6 billion, reflecting reduced leverage.
- Demand for short-dated options has increased, yet implied volatility remains below realized spot volatility.
- Premiums for downside protection have risen but remain well below levels seen during past bear markets.
The report shows that risk appetite has deteriorated sharply over the past week, with broad-based selling across digital assets. Bitcoin fell below $70,000, touching its weakest levels since October 2024. The decline coincided with a sharp reduction in leverage, as liquidations surged and open interest in perpetual futures contracts dropped significantly.
Despite the magnitude of the price correction, the report notes that derivatives market behavior does not fully align with historical bear market conditions. Options markets have reacted cautiously, with implied volatility for short- and mid-dated contracts hovering near 50 percent, well below the triple-digit levels observed during the 2022 downturn. The ratio of implied to realized volatility remains below one, suggesting that traders are not pricing in sustained future turbulence at levels seen during past crises.
Analysis of downside protection further supports this view. While put options on Bitcoin and Ether command higher premiums than calls, the current skew remains far below the extremes recorded during the 2022 market collapse. Instead, these dynamics more closely resemble the mid-cycle correction of 2021, when sharp drawdowns were followed by renewed market strength later in the cycle.
“Crypto bears have been firmly in control, capitalising on even minor catalysts to keep prices in a sustained downtrend,” said Han Tan, Chief market analyst at Bybit Learn.
“Crypto sentiment has shifted away from risk-on narratives in recent months, even as precious metals and global equities have posted multiple record highs,” Tan said. “There remains a lack of near-term confidence-boosting catalysts, despite sentiment appearing increasingly detached from longer-term constructive fundamentals.”
The full Bybit x Block Scholes report is available for download.
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About Bybit
Bybit is the world’s second-largest cryptocurrency exchange by trading volume, serving a global community of over 80 million users. Founded in 2018, Bybit is redefining openness in the decentralized world by creating a simpler, open and equal ecosystem for everyone. With a strong focus on Web3, Bybit partners strategically with leading blockchain protocols to provide robust infrastructure and drive on-chain innovation. Renowned for its secure custody, diverse marketplaces, intuitive user experience, and advanced blockchain tools, Bybit bridges the gap between TradFi and DeFi, empowering builders, creators, and enthusiasts to unlock the full potential of Web3. Discover the future of decentralized finance at Bybit.com.
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