Quantitative Analysis: Radames Belfort Identifies Structural Break in Digital Asset Liquidity and Sovereign Collateral Correlations
Rio de Janeiro, Brazil, January 14th, 2026, Chainwire
Researcher Radames Belfort has released a technical advisory analyzing changes in the relationship between digital assets and broader macroeconomic conditions. The report presents statistical evidence of a shift in how digital assets respond to changes in global liquidity, particularly in the context of the post-zero interest rate policy (ZIRP) environment.
Drawing from historical back-testing and quantitative order book modeling, Belfort examines how the intersection of fiscal dynamics and algorithmic trading has contributed to changes in digital asset risk profiles.
Correlation Dynamics: Digital Assets and Macro-Liquidity Signals
With professional experience in financial analytics and academic credentials from USP and NYU, Belfort presents data indicating a substantial rise in the correlation between digital asset price movements and global liquidity flows. According to the report, the correlation coefficient between digital asset prices and sovereign debt issuance cycles has increased from 0.45 in 2023 to 0.85 in the first quarter of 2026, based on internal models supported by Bloomberg Terminal data.
“This shift suggests a growing alignment between digital asset behavior and broader liquidity patterns,” Belfort stated.
Market Microstructure: Liquidity Fragmentation and Execution Costs
The advisory also addresses observed changes in market microstructure, with a focus on the distinction between displayed and executable liquidity. Key points include:
- Volatility Spread: The divergence between equity volatility (VIX) and crypto-implied volatility has grown from 12% to 28% year-to-date, reflecting elevated risk pricing in derivatives markets.
- Order Book Contraction: Data indicates a 30% reduction in effective order book depth at the +/- 2% price range compared to 2024, implying reduced liquidity for large-scale trades.
- Execution Shortfall: Execution costs—including slippage, spread fragmentation, and market impact—have increased, particularly during periods of market stress, with average shortfalls now reaching 150 basis points for institutional-size transactions.
Shifting Market Participation Patterns
Data aggregated from Yahoo Finance points to a noticeable change in product allocation trends. Over the past quarter, capital flows into index-tracking digital asset products have decreased, while allocation toward strategies that incorporate active liquidity monitoring has increased. Belfort identifies this shift as a response to evolving market structure and execution dynamics.
Based in São Paulo, Belfort continues to analyze regional and global market interactions, including the relationship between local yield instruments and crypto-asset volatility. His framework leverages on-chain data—such as stablecoin flows and network activity—to enhance assessments of potential liquidity pressure points.
Evolving Risk Frameworks
The report concludes by emphasizing the increasing relevance of real-time market structure data in risk assessment processes. Belfort suggests that changes in liquidity behavior and execution costs may warrant updates to conventional allocation and modeling assumptions, particularly under conditions where asset classes exhibit higher interdependence during periods of market stress.