HTX Research Releases DeepThink Analysis on Macro and Crypto Markets
PANAMA CITY, Dec. 3, 2025 /PRNewswire/ — HTX Research released its latest DeepThink analysis as macro and crypto markets enter a period shaped by dense data releases and continued uncertainty regarding the Federal Reserve’s December policy path. Analyst Chloe (@ChloeTalk1) outlines how upcoming macro indicators may influence expectations for the Federal Open Market Committee meeting and set the tone for broader risk sentiment across equities and digital assets.
Data Cluster That Will Shape Rate-Cut Expectations
Markets currently anticipate another rate cut in December, though Chair Jerome Powell noted last week that the government shutdown created gaps in official labor and inflation statistics. As a result, policymakers may not receive complete indicators before the meeting. This week’s high-frequency releases are expected to influence whether the probability of a cut declines toward 50 percent or moves closer to full market confidence.
The first major release is the November ISM Manufacturing PMI. Manufacturing has remained in contraction since March, with October registering 48.7. New orders and employment components stayed below 50, reflecting continued effects from tariffs and weaker global demand.
The Services PMI, by comparison, held at 52.4 in October. Its price component remained near 70, indicating that inflation pressure is more concentrated in domestic services. A steady November reading would support more cautious viewpoints within the Federal Reserve, while a decline toward 50 or below would strengthen the case for a December adjustment.
Labor-market conditions remain the central variable. With October nonfarm payrolls cancelled and November payrolls postponed until after the December meeting, this week’s ADP employment report holds increased importance. October ADP showed an addition of 42,000 positions. A stronger November outcome would reduce the likelihood of immediate easing, while a weaker result would provide support for a more accommodative stance. The Challenger layoffs report will also carry weight after October layoffs rose to 153,074, the highest in more than two decades. A continued rise would lead markets to reassess the risk of a labor-market downturn.
On Friday, market attention turns to the PCE inflation and personal-spending data. Projections call for headline PCE to rise from 2.7 percent to 2.8 percent and for core PCE to remain at 2.9 percent. Readings near these levels would suggest limited space for further adjustments, while unexpected softness would ease short-term pressure.
Risk Appetite Remains Limited
In U.S. equities, Goldman’s trading desk notes that volatility has moderated and market breadth has recovered from –150 to +150, helping to reduce systemic selling pressure through mid-November. Institutional positioning models now indicate a shift toward approximately $4.7 billion in net buying during December. A seasonal rebound remains possible depending on whether this week’s indicators align with expectations for policy easing.
In crypto markets, Bitcoin has returned above $85,000 based on HTX data following a drawdown of nearly 30 percent from the October high. Sentiment remains cautious amid thin liquidity conditions. Exchange-traded products have experienced mild outflows, and the Coinbase premium continues to show subdued institutional demand. Options markets reflect a defensive stance, with near-term implied volatility exceeding longer-dated levels and put skew remaining negative. This indicates continued demand for downside protection amid expectations of short-term volatility events.
Macro Indicators to Determine Potential Market Reversal
The broader crypto landscape remains sensitive. While uncertainty persists, early signs of bottom-forming dynamics are emerging.
If U.S. data this week signal slowing growth without recession alongside moderate inflation, major digital assets may experience a natural recovery. This scenario could lead to faster compression in implied volatility and improved conditions for short-volatility strategies.
If manufacturing, labor, or inflation indicators rise above expectations and reduce the likelihood of near-term policy easing, thin holiday liquidity could amplify downside volatility. In the current environment, concentrated directional positioning carries increased risk. Market structure suggests a pattern of incremental accumulation near lower ranges, while elevated short-term implied volatility provides opportunities for hedging. The $80,000 to $82,000 range remains a notable support area, though confirmation of a broader trend shift will depend on clearer macro signals.
*The above content is not an investment advice and does not constitute any offer or solicitation to offer or recommendation of any investment product.
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About HTX Research
HTX Research is the dedicated research arm of HTX Group, responsible for conducting in-depth analyses, producing comprehensive reports, and delivering expert evaluations across a broad spectrum of topics, including cryptocurrency, blockchain technology, and emerging market trends.
