All Eyes on Jackson Hole as Market Momentum Cools – Bybit and FXStreet TradFi Report
Dubai, UAE, August 21st, 2025, Chainwire
Bybit, the world’s second-largest cryptocurrency exchange by trading volume, issued its latest TradFi report, spotlighting heightened anticipation ahead of the Jackson Hole Economic Policy Symposium. With Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell set to speak on Friday, markets are bracing for clarity on the U.S. interest rate outlook and its implications across global assets, from currencies to cryptocurrencies.
The report reveals that traders are pricing in an 83% chance of a 25-basis-point rate cut at the Fed’s September 17 meeting, down from 94% last week, underscoring rising uncertainty. Historically, Powell’s remarks at Jackson Hole have triggered sharp market moves: hawkish tones have lifted the dollar and weighed on equities, while dovish guidance has sparked rallies in stocks and crypto. This year’s backdrop: softer inflation, a cooling labor market, and persistent geopolitical frictions, makes the Fed’s forward guidance more pivotal than ever.
Key Highlights:
- Event focus: The Jackson Hole Economic Policy Symposium runs Aug. 21–23, with Powell’s speech set for Friday at 14:00 GMT.
- Rate cut expectations: Markets now see an 83% probability of a 25 bps cut in September, down from 94% last week.
- Dollar impact: Lower rates typically weaken the dollar while boosting risk assets, including crypto.
- Powell’s tone matters: A dovish stance could fuel a EUR/USD breakout; a hawkish tone risks triggering profit-taking.
- EUR/USD setup: Trading near 1.168, the pair faces resistance at 1.182 and support at 1.16.
- Neutral technicals: Flat MACD and RSI at 50 reflect market indecision before Powell’s remarks.
Technical analysis points to EUR/USD trading near 1.168, with resistance at 1.182 and support around 1.16. Indicators show neutrality, suggesting traders are holding back until Powell delivers direction. A dovish tone could push EUR/USD toward the 1.20 level, while a hawkish surprise may strengthen the dollar and trigger profit-taking.
For crypto and broader risk assets, the stakes remain high. Lower rates tend to weaken the dollar and drive capital toward alternative investments, with Bitcoin, Ethereum, and Solana already reacting to shifting macro expectations.
For detailed insights, readers may read the full report.
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